Ensemble prediction of estuary set-up and set-down using operational WRF model winds. This project is the atmospheric component of a collaborative effort to examine the feasibility to forecast the wind-driven water rise on the Indian River Lagoon.
This project involves a number of different players including Florida Tech, University of Utah, WeatherFlow, and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). FIT's contribution is associated with surface weather station metadata enhancement and quality control. As part of this effort, FIT has been developing 1) an improved land surface/land use data set and 2) a methodology by which the "instrument chain" (e.g., response time) can be backed out using wind gust data only. Using a subset of stations, location errors as well as NLCD glitches are identified.
An accurate simulation of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) using numerical models remains extremely difficult due to a number of reasons. The main objective of this study is to explore the extent to which MJO and its initiation are affected by the air-sea coupling in the presence and absence of external influences (i.e., circumnavigating waves and extratropics) in different seasons. The key here is to separate the local and external forcing in a model that cannot be achieved using observations. A unique GCM-based framework is constructed to fulfill the objective.
The primary focus of the project is to examine the performance of the National Hurricane Center (NHC) Wind Speed Probability Forecast product. The 45th Weather Squadron makes extensive use of the NHC product for advising operational customers in preparations associated with mitigating the risks from tropical cyclones at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station/Kennedy Space Center/Patrick Air Force Base (CCAFS/KSC/PAFB). Specifically, this work is intended to help customers make educated evacuation decisions, including timing for setting the various hurricane conditions for CCAFS/KSC/PAFB.